FRISCO, Texas – Playoffs have arrived.
The No. 3-seed Dallas Cowboys host the sixth seed San Francisco 49ers in a modern take on the old, storied rivalry, 3:30 p.m. on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend nears. An exhilarating matchup awaits as the single-elimination tournament begins.
Following film evaluation, here are a few observations on what the Cowboys need to do
on Sunday to add a tally in the win column to advance beyond the Wild Card round for the first time since 2018.
Stopping the run, Niners’ scouting report
The running game is the Niners’ calling card. Dallas’ run defense cannot operate like it did against a decimated Eagles squad in Week 18. During the first half, the Cowboys’ defense allowed Philadelphia’s backups to rush for 94 yards on 16 carries. San Francisco’s old-school, creative approach will test the discipline of Dan Quinn’s unit. Kyle Shanahan utilizes counters, traps, motions and shifts in a perimeter-based rushing attack that stretches the C-gap assignments of the opponent. Whether inside or outside zone, the intention will be to run the ball 30-plus times. Down by a 17-point deficit against the Rams, the Niners did not abandon their bread-and-butter.
Dallas will need all 11 players on the field to play a critical role in defending the run. The Cowboys must stay disciplined in run fits and set the edge, while getting off blockers at the line of scrimmage. If defenders get trapped inside or vacate their primary assignment due to pre-snap movement, San Francisco’s running backs and receivers (jet sweeps, wide zone runs, bubble screens) will gash the Dallas defense inside AT&T Stadium. The Niners’ arguably have the best run blocking unit in football with their physical tight end chips, offensive tackle pulls, and stalk blocks by receivers.
Of the Niners’ previous 11 games, their three losses have come from the only three teams that held them to under 100 yards rushing: Titans, Seahawks and Cardinals. The Cowboys will have to match the Niners’ physicality on the ground to keep rushers from breaking past the second level. Both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have been offensive catalysts with their yards after catch (YAC) ability and Dallas must be fundamentally sound in tackling to prevent big gains. Linebackers/the secondary need to rally to the ball and take down Elijah Mitchell and Samuel before they round the corner to break north-south. That would force Jimmy Garoppolo to try and win the game through the air, making San Francisco one-dimensional.
Variety on offense
A balanced approach is optimal for Dallas. Sure, the Niners’ have not allowed a team to rush for over 100 yards since Week 9 against Arizona, however, if the Cowboys abandon the run game too early and are forced to heavily rely on an aerial attack, too much pressure will be placed on the offensive line to hold up against San Francisco’s lethal pass rushers. A variety is key.
Instead of repetitive runs-through-tackles like Kellen Moore dialed up against the Cardinals, Dallas needs to mix things up. Whether that means more touches for Tony Pollard in a perimeter-attack to benefit his shiftiness in space, more design runs for Prescott, or lining up CeeDee Lamb in the backfield could help get the ground game rolling to open up favorable one-on-one matchups for wideouts. It does not have to be 30 attempts but enough to create a complementary offensive attack.
Offensive line improvement
What was projected to be the strength of the team in 2021, turned out to be a weak link. Throughout the duration of the regular season, the Cowboys’ O-Line has been inconsistent at the point of attack, resulting in a lackluster running game. Against the Cardinals two weeks ago, the positive runs the club did muster were negated by penalties across the line. Against the Niners’ formidable front featuring Bosa, Armstead and Key, the quintet must step it up.
The Cowboys do not have the benefit of superb tight end blocking for chips and any cracks will be exposed by the speed and power of the Niners’ frontline. They have the capability of wrecking a game, drawing comments from Ezekiel Elliott this past week.
“It starts with the D-Line. We got to win at the line of scrimmage. We got to neutralize those guys. They built their defense around the D-Line and their linebackers. So just establishing that line of scrimmage and getting off to a fast start.”
All must win their one-on-ones in order for Dallas to move the football. If they do not, it is going to be a LONG day for Cowboys’ fans in Arlington. Tyron Smith, Connor Williams, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin and La’el Collins need to elevate their play to meet the lofty reputation surrounding “The Great Wall.”
Dak Prescott to close
History will attest that the majority of the time, the outcome of playoff games are decided by the play of the man under center and the Cowboys’ need an elite showing from their QB1. That is not to say Dak Prescott will throw the ball anywhere near 58 times like he did against Tampa Bay or put up 350 yards, but he will have to throw several dimes on critical downs.
In Prescott’s past four games, he has thrown 13 touchdowns with no interceptions. Conversely, he has lost two fumbles. Niners’ veteran cornerback Josh Norman is among the league leaders with seven forced fumbles and ball security will be a critical factor.
With tone-setters up front such as Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Arden Key and Fred Warner, the Cowboys’ offensive line must protect well to give Prescott enough time to go through reads/take shots downfield. The 49ers’ secondary has given up chunk plays in man coverage and exploiting single coverage with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Cedrick Wilson will be a recipe for success with max protection up front.
Whether it is a QB sneak inside the red zone or a critical third-down conversion, Prescott relishes the opportune moments. Pressure for him, is a privilege.
“I don’t know why people have labeled the word pressure as such a bad thing, honestly. It creates high expectations and high standards that usually creates high results. So, for me, its about being who I am, staying true to that.”
As the unquestioned leader of the team and the heart/soul of the franchise, Sunday is the day to embody and embrace it in the high-stakes contest.
Takeaways
No team in the NFL was better than the Cowboys during the regular season at taking the ball away, totaling 34 with an average of two per game. The number is largely courtesy of Trevon Diggs – the league interception leader with 11. The pressure up front by Dan Quinn’s menacing crew caused errant throws, allowing the secondary to feast.
Those momentum-changing plays get the crowd involved and often determine the outcome of the ballgame. They put the offense back on the field and provide an opportunity to cash in with points on a short field (traditionally). For the latter half of the 2021 season, the Cowboys’ opportunistic defense has carried the team by forcing turnovers as the offense sputtered.
From transforming a defense that surrendered the most points in franchise history last year into one of the most prolific a year later, Quinn was asked what he is most proud of. He listed the first component as the connection the players built in fighting for each other. The second was takeaways.
“We’ve talked about the importance of creating takeaways and having a mindset for the ball,” Quinn stated. “Really Mike’s [McCarthy] done a good job of championing that for us. But to have that go our way in terms of the turnover battle, that helps you win games. Those would be the two things that I’ve been most pleased with – the connection and creating the takeaways. I just think as they’re building together, we’re going to continue to see the improvement. That’s why I’m excited about where they’re at and where we’re headed.”
Kicking debacle
Cowboys’ kicker Greg Zuerlein missed six field goals this season (three from 50-plus) and six extra points, a career-high. Sufficive to say, the nickname ‘Greg the leg’ no longer rings true. In discussing his missed kicks on 105.3 The Fan in Dallas, owner and general manager Jerry Jones candidly remarked that Zuerlein has “altered” the team’s game plan in terms of going for it on fourth-and-short due to the inconsistencies in the kicking game.
“Absolutely it does, and we’re well aware and should be aware,” Jones commented. “That’s part of running the show. It really does, but Zuerlein brings a lot to the table. His leg strength, his touchbacks, his ability to be a threat at length, distance, all of that is there. He has had an exceptionally tough year for him with extra points, but he’s a sound kicker, an experienced kicker and our guys are all sensitive about how to approach the game…You can rest assured the first thing that you look at. If a better alternative would be out there, we would be using it. Everything’s at stake.”
The margin for error in a playoff game is minute. Games can easily be a tug-of-war and come down to a field goal to conclude regulation. Missing kicks is a liability the Cowboys cannot afford in the hope of advancing past the wild-card round.
“I’ve been around Greg enough to see him go through the valley and then rebound,” special teams coordinator John Fassel described. “And every time that that’s happened, he’s rebounded, so I see no reason why it would be different this time for kind of the same reason as you kind of get cold…I’m very proud of Greg. He is grinding very hard this season, and obviously, the pressures, he feels the weight of it. He wants to perform for the team. He doesn’t want to perform for himself. He wants to make kicks to help the team. He feels the pressure. That’s part of my job, too, is to not put more on him. ‘Your job is on the line. The season is on the line.’ I don’t think that helps because he knows that. Part of it is, ‘Hey, man, get back there.’ Have the mindset of, ‘I’m going to poke this sucker, and it’s going to go right down the pipe. I’m not going to aim. I’m not going to guide it. I’m not going to overthink it.”
